The global gift card market is worth somewhere between roughly $600 billion and $1.4 trillion a year, depending on whose estimate you read. That spread is not sloppiness: it is methodology, and the definitions behind each number matter more than the number itself.
Anyone citing a single figure without saying what it counts is quoting a headline, not a market. Here is what the current numbers say and why they diverge.
What the current estimates say
According to Research and Markets’ 2025 gift card and incentive card intelligence report, the global market reaches $614.7 billion in 2025, growing 8.5% year on year. According to Allied Market Research, the global gift cards market stands at about $1.12 trillion in the same year. According to Precedence Research, 2025 comes in near $1.24 trillion, with a projection of $4.23 trillion by 2035. And according to Fortune Business Insights, the 2025 market is worth about $1.4 trillion.
Same industry, same year, and the largest figure is more than double the smallest. None of these firms is wrong; they are measuring different things.
Why the estimates disagree
Scope of the product. Some reports count closed-loop cards only, the kind redeemable with one issuer. Others add open-loop prepaid cards that run on payment networks, a category several times larger. A report that includes both loops will dwarf one that tracks retail gift cards alone.
Consumer only, or B2B too. Corporate rewards, employee incentives and payout programmes move enormous volumes of cards that never pass through a retail checkout. Reports that include the incentive segment sit higher than those measuring consumer gifting, and the segment flows through distributors rather than shop shelves, so it is easy to undercount.
Geography. Some firms model a set of tracked countries and extrapolate; others attempt genuine global coverage. Fast-growing markets with thin data are where the models drift apart.
What is being counted. Most figures describe value loaded onto cards, not industry revenue. Loaded value includes a slice that will never be redeemed, which the industry calls breakage, so even a perfect load figure overstates eventual spend.
Forecast vs measured year. A “2025 market size” can be a measurement of 2025 or a projection made in 2022 from an older base year. Projections compound whatever growth rate the analyst assumed, and small assumption gaps become large dollar gaps within a few years.
What the sources agree on
Read past the headline numbers and the reports converge on direction.
- The market grows every year, in every report, through recessions and pandemic years alike.
- The digital share keeps rising as plastic gives way to codes delivered by email, app and API.
- The B2B and incentive segment expands faster than consumer gifting, pulling volume through aggregators and distribution APIs rather than retail racks.
For anyone building a business in the trade, the direction matters more than the level. A market of $600 billion growing high single digits and a market of $1.4 trillion growing high single digits lead to the same decision.
How to cite a market size number
Cite the definition, not just the figure. “The gift card market is worth $1 trillion” is unfalsifiable; “closed-loop and open-loop gift cards worldwide, consumer and corporate, measured 2025, per Allied Market Research” is a claim a reader can check. State the source, the year, the loop scope and whether B2B volume is in. If a deck needs one number, pick the narrowest estimate that still covers your segment: it survives scrutiny better than the biggest one.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the gift card market?
Between roughly $600 billion and $1.4 trillion globally in 2025, depending on scope. Research and Markets puts gift and incentive cards at $614.7 billion, Allied Market Research at about $1.12 trillion, Precedence Research near $1.24 trillion, and Fortune Business Insights at about $1.4 trillion. The differences come from what each firm counts, not from measurement error.
Why do market size estimates differ so much?
Because each research firm defines the market differently. The main dividing lines are whether open-loop prepaid cards are included alongside closed-loop gift cards, whether corporate incentive volume counts or only consumer purchases, how many countries are genuinely tracked, and whether the figure is measured or projected from an earlier base year. Two defensible definitions can sit a factor of two apart.
Is the gift card market growing?
Yes, on every published estimate. The firms disagree about the level but not the trend: total load value rises year on year, digital delivery takes share from plastic, and the B2B incentive segment grows faster than consumer gifting. The growth in digital and B2B volume is why distribution APIs and trade catalogues have become the centre of the industry.
Does the gift card market size include open-loop prepaid cards?
Some estimates include them and some do not, and this single choice explains much of the gap between published figures. Closed-loop cards redeem with one issuer; open-loop prepaid cards run on payment networks and form a category several times larger. A report counting both loops will dwarf one tracking retail gift cards alone, so check the loop scope before comparing any two headline numbers.
Do gift card market figures count money that is never spent?
Yes, in most cases. The headline figures describe value loaded onto cards, and a slice of loaded value is never redeemed, which the industry calls breakage. That means even a perfectly measured load figure overstates eventual spend at merchants. The distinction rarely changes a strategic decision, but it matters whenever a load-value estimate is presented as if it were industry revenue.